Ledger / Prediction #3355 · narrative · 1H

Will "seal" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 67% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 2540 launches in the last hour referenced "seal" (40 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.75×.

Made2026-10-13 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 21:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 20:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": 0.557551803714571,
      "diversity": 0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6674815203299432
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "seal",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.03333333333333333,
    "share60": 0.01908697363242818,
    "total15": 584,
    "total60": 2540,
    "momentum": 1.7463917525773194,
    "diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
    "launches15": 19,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 40
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 319,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990919444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990919444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6674815203299432
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 21:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.446

Log loss1.101

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007029226785053644,
  "shareRatio": 0.377825138778747,
  "totalAfter": 2703,
  "shareBefore": 0.01889763779527559,
  "totalBefore": 2540,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 19,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 48
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 67% that "seal" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.89% → 0.70% (-63%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "seal" (1H). momentum contributed +0.56 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd48776bdf51474527936c2b565b8925e6a04511f052b469d43b47756730441bf

Previous hash47e29a3ee48587530e6345a09d9ef0fd48ae653647ec3e85bcbffb562d3f9c67