Ledger / Prediction #3350 · token · 6H

Will $TOAD still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 29m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "cat". Creator launched 56 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "B4ARffswonxLmNa5nUo6Hb8yAM2RvPgn4kyqUMQpump",
    "name": "The Toad Cat",
    "symbol": "TOAD",
    "hotTerms": [
      "cat"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 29,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 9308.09746373673,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 56
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 856,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 02:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.031

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T19:41:20.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 17597.567219984212,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 17734.00598996381,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 9308.09746373673,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 18616.19492747346
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $TOAD would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $17,598, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $TOAD (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbecd5f9b49be137557f225936d035d639f95e5f4b988f71e7dac32a2078e32e9

Previous hash5a9b69dc71ef96426fffed5cf83ed3d2a91b8d49e977046decd43be332651b53