Ledger / Prediction #335 · token · 1H

Will $cold still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 21m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "wallet".

Made2026-10-09 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 21:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 20:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.12516099799833535
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "6AgVF2PttDnEoz916AFnRkcj7MEwzWCvvpzAqdXUpump",
    "name": "cold wallet",
    "symbol": "cold",
    "hotTerms": [
      "wallet"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 21,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 35,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3840.222565795198,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 885,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.12516099799833535
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 21:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.016

Log loss0.134

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T20:13:39.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3044.454800946477,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4732.627029305048,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3840.222565795198,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 7680.445131590396
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 13% that $cold would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,044, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $cold (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash840154e321ca33cc583d2fa123c0a9b376a22589c7e3f9d4a2e9631f8efd479d

Previous hash567c4b79aca194d1c46d0203cdacdf54fa25cf3afd8dccb32afe87ac8c4fa4dd