Ledger / Prediction #3348 · narrative · 24H

Will "keffed" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2372 launches in the last hour referenced "keffed" (4 distinct creators, rank #349). Last 15m momentum 0.37×.

Made2026-10-13 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -1.0027119642612339,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3161858531198793
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "keffed",
    "rank60": 349,
    "share15": 0.0008503401360544217,
    "share60": 0.002317741255794353,
    "total15": 587,
    "total60": 2372,
    "momentum": 0.36688311688311687,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935397222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997308217592593
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3161858531198793
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.100

Log loss0.380

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00007084327106996954,
  "shareRatio": 0.6449440566045838,
  "totalAfter": 42347,
  "shareBefore": 0.00011650123491309008,
  "totalBefore": 42918,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 32% that "keffed" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.01% → 0.01% (-39%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "keffed" (24H). momentum contributed -1.00 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3d7c279af4a9e1d3c9b27c86db6543de193b57f933f1ef1cbc3cb4cf76ac05ba

Previous hash2eb5d8ca8e568877e5d5b7d04be02cfdb59f47267b6b481d96911533d8c22bc4