GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3347 · narrative · 24H

Will "abdulrahman" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 2372 launches in the last hour referenced "abdulrahman" (18 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 4.04×.

Made2026-10-13 20:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 20:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": 1.3951833085371366,
      "diversity": -0.2828571428571429
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5991936265348897
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "abdulrahman",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.06037414965986394,
    "share60": 0.014959966287399916,
    "total15": 587,
    "total60": 2372,
    "momentum": 4.035714285714286,
    "diversity": 0.5142857142857142,
    "launches15": 35,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935397222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997308217592593
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5991936265348897
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 20:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.161
Log loss0.512
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012987933029494415,
  "shareRatio": 1.5844601471110598,
  "totalAfter": 42347,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008155086443916306,
  "totalBefore": 42918,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 55,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 35
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "abdulrahman" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.08% → 0.13% (+59%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "abdulrahman" (24H). momentum contributed +1.40 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2eb5d8ca8e568877e5d5b7d04be02cfdb59f47267b6b481d96911533d8c22bc4
Previous hash08337abdcad2a0dca83bb8e0cb17c4dcf590ba27808bd649c20249a45a0acc91