Ledger / Prediction #3340 · narrative · 1H

Will "trench" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 2372 launches in the last hour referenced "trench" (10 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.92×.

Made2026-10-13 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 21:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": -0.08291860183587678,
      "diversity": -0.4714285714285714
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.35527489651530475
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "trench",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.011054421768707483,
    "share60": 0.012010113780025285,
    "total15": 587,
    "total60": 2372,
    "momentum": 0.9204260651629073,
    "diversity": 0.35714285714285715,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935397222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935397222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.35527489651530475
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 21:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.126

Log loss0.439

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0015186028853454822,
  "shareRatio": 0.14327374413262758,
  "totalAfter": 2634,
  "shareBefore": 0.011715481171548118,
  "totalBefore": 2390,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 28
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 36% that "trench" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.17% → 0.15% (-87%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "trench" (1H). diversity contributed -0.47 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd2f9bd7cd76ce36525a6f306919b3e6c69a377ac19ac3aa961d2b7f82d8afec4

Previous hash821075e94dceb60cb946183c0bc7240f3fe3c3c6401446cd4784502aefc69852