Ledger / Prediction #3338 · narrative · 1H

Will "space" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 2372 launches in the last hour referenced "space" (31 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

Made2026-10-13 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 21:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": -3.2199372083041227,
      "diversity": -0.156
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "space",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.0008503401360544217,
    "share60": 0.021281078803202697,
    "total15": 587,
    "total60": 2372,
    "momentum": 0.039957567185289956,
    "diversity": 0.62,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935397222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935397222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 21:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00037965072133637056,
  "shareRatio": 0.02695248651999925,
  "totalAfter": 2634,
  "shareBefore": 0.02092050209205021,
  "totalBefore": 2390,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "space" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.09% → 0.04% (-98%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "space" (1H). momentum contributed -3.22 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashad3cb2f585724c586cb7068443993caa6218e7930494e85586c69c8d7512c502

Previous hash49c1a88abc208f4a2a0512e8d4393e73976ea6c4a890596f85bd4cf5e4934e05