Ledger / Prediction #3328 · narrative · 6H
Will "dead" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 2195 launches in the last hour referenced "dead" (6 distinct creators, rank #185). Last 15m momentum 1.31×.
Made2026-10-13 19:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 01:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": 0.26963104080621236,
"diversity": 0.1285714285714285
},
"rawProbability": 0.5035177703088299
},
"features": {
"term": "dead",
"rank60": 185,
"share15": 0.004472271914132379,
"share60": 0.0034153005464480873,
"total15": 558,
"total60": 2195,
"momentum": 1.3094812164579606,
"diversity": 0.8571428571428571,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 332,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9966088888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994348148148148
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5035177703088299
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 01:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.247
Log loss0.686
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0014944332361951729,
"shareRatio": 1.0574873174245558,
"totalAfter": 13383,
"shareBefore": 0.0014113801812509286,
"totalBefore": 13462,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 20,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 19
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 50% that "dead" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.14% → 0.15% (+6%). PARTIAL.
— "dead" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
3e41535d47e538405f1b109d83047338358796ef0d2784eae9464d14a4686fcdPrevious hash
b31de8cc0452dfc0aae6dbf155086e36bc4dae4da265c942fc1729cf4c16d226