GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3328 · narrative · 6H

Will "dead" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2195 launches in the last hour referenced "dead" (6 distinct creators, rank #185). Last 15m momentum 1.31×.

Made2026-10-13 19:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 01:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 0.26963104080621236,
      "diversity": 0.1285714285714285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5035177703088299
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dead",
    "rank60": 185,
    "share15": 0.004472271914132379,
    "share60": 0.0034153005464480873,
    "total15": 558,
    "total60": 2195,
    "momentum": 1.3094812164579606,
    "diversity": 0.8571428571428571,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9966088888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994348148148148
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5035177703088299
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 01:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.247
Log loss0.686
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0014944332361951729,
  "shareRatio": 1.0574873174245558,
  "totalAfter": 13383,
  "shareBefore": 0.0014113801812509286,
  "totalBefore": 13462,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 20,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 19
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "dead" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.14% → 0.15% (+6%). PARTIAL.

— "dead" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3e41535d47e538405f1b109d83047338358796ef0d2784eae9464d14a4686fcd
Previous hashb31de8cc0452dfc0aae6dbf155086e36bc4dae4da265c942fc1729cf4c16d226