Ledger / Prediction #3323 · narrative · 1H

Will "monkey" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 2195 launches in the last hour referenced "monkey" (30 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.43×.

Made2026-10-13 19:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 20:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": -0.8489819145685669,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2721792080296481
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "monkey",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.009838998211091235,
    "share60": 0.022996357012750455,
    "total15": 558,
    "total60": 2195,
    "momentum": 0.4278502984466604,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9966088888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9966088888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2721792080296481
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 20:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.074

Log loss0.318

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0027559055118110236,
  "shareRatio": 0.1287596292096742,
  "totalAfter": 2540,
  "shareBefore": 0.022706630336058128,
  "totalBefore": 2202,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 27% that "monkey" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.27% → 0.28% (-88%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "monkey" (1H). momentum contributed -0.85 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8a62e8100cbac76a870ddae5c89fd613cd2a3e3e92d58dfdfcbfeeadc7824eab

Previous hash3b5df1e245bbc9e3d40a768486212d8dfc14a0d7400723875330d95bf95fcc4a