GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3321 · narrative · 1H

Will "justice" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

69 of 2195 launches in the last hour referenced "justice" (29 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.20×.

Made2026-10-13 19:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 20:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3937002888244739,
      "momentum": -1.6203204546010563,
      "diversity": -0.39565217391304347
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.12760838513994138
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "justice",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.006261180679785331,
    "share60": 0.03164845173041894,
    "total15": 558,
    "total60": 2195,
    "momentum": 0.1978352916950876,
    "diversity": 0.42028985507246375,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 69,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 332,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9966088888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9966088888888889
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.12760838513994138
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 20:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.016
Log loss0.137
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.005118110236220472,
  "shareRatio": 0.1684064790670415,
  "totalAfter": 2540,
  "shareBefore": 0.031335149863760216,
  "totalBefore": 2202,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 69
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 13% that "justice" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.13% → 0.51% (-84%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "justice" (1H). momentum contributed -1.62 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe04d65cfd4064c564fdbb3e4413a163b2792da168ef58547c61976bd403340f3
Previous hash6edd786cdb712622b185cbb49f31c8b60c15e3fb45510528c368f543cf344105