Will "argon" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 2207 launches in the last hour referenced "argon" (7 distinct creators, rank #127). Last 15m momentum 0.24×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -1.4249400762175501,
      "diversity": 0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2417502456229132
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "argon",
    "rank60": 127,
    "share15": 0.000925925925925926,
    "share60": 0.0038496376811594205,
    "total15": 539,
    "total60": 2207,
    "momentum": 0.24052287581699347,
    "diversity": 0.875,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 274,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99984875
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2417502456229132
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001756697408871322,
  "shareRatio": 0.6378882139110492,
  "totalAfter": 13662,
  "shareBefore": 0.0027738211260214408,
  "totalBefore": 13339,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 24,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 37
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity