GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3308 · narrative · 1H

Will "economy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2207 launches in the last hour referenced "economy" (5 distinct creators, rank #166). Last 15m momentum 1.91×.

Made2026-10-13 19:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 20:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 19:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 0.6461332157917691,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5875258985943205
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "economy",
    "rank60": 166,
    "share15": 0.006481481481481481,
    "share60": 0.0033967391304347825,
    "total15": 539,
    "total60": 2207,
    "momentum": 1.9081481481481481,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 274,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990925,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990925
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5875258985943205
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 20:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.345
Log loss0.886
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008368200836820083,
  "shareRatio": 0.3078209953994145,
  "totalAfter": 2390,
  "shareBefore": 0.0031717263253285004,
  "totalBefore": 2207,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "economy" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.32% → 0.08% (-74%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "economy" (1H). momentum contributed +0.65 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha12552e0aa262d106584e53b65a9bcd06fd7fc64aff7badaff7d3530952fe8c3
Previous hash7b4ef3f5c98463198009bca27c49aa2cef97d76a76a5c30eef18d243432a73b1