Ledger / Prediction #330 · narrative · 6H

Will "burn" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 2680 launches in the last hour referenced "burn" (7 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.10×.

Made2026-10-09 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 20:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": -2.2906529413689105,
      "diversity": -0.7472727272727273
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1020392363945756
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "burn",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.002094972067039106,
    "share60": 0.020701230883998507,
    "total15": 715,
    "total60": 2680,
    "momentum": 0.10120036237354674,
    "diversity": 0.12727272727272726,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 439,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.997965,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996608333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1020392363945756
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 02:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.010

Log loss0.108

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002488938053097345,
  "shareRatio": 0.44302711947715134,
  "totalAfter": 14464,
  "shareBefore": 0.0056631107599104434,
  "totalBefore": 15186,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 36,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 86
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that "burn" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.57% → 0.25% (-56%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "burn" (6H). momentum contributed -2.29 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash697ce77b6e870c57beb3c8566d0d87d18c29028c6e746b00d3ef291d8fdcf27f

Previous hash43fee18e3c69edbf9085317380b64637c579ee9a9e3ac3e50f5efab8bc6c938e