Will "model" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 2297 launches in the last hour referenced "model" (27 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 0.13×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": -2.0784256501477234,
      "diversity": -0.22499999999999998
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.21719626880450796
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "model",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.002640845070422535,
    "share60": 0.021105308964316796,
    "total15": 567,
    "total60": 2297,
    "momentum": 0.12512705096558735,
    "diversity": 0.5625,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 260,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935330555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997305439814815
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.21719626880450796
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0011512887385164822,
  "shareRatio": 0.5217199885777491,
  "totalAfter": 42561,
  "shareBefore": 0.0022178018611244484,
  "totalBefore": 43737,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 49,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 97
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity