GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3298 · narrative · 24H

Will "odyssean" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 2297 launches in the last hour referenced "odyssean" (37 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.94×.

Made2026-10-13 18:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 18:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 18:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": -0.061952594517890536,
      "diversity": 0.006122448979591777
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4608959223140268
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "odyssean",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.020246478873239437,
    "share60": 0.02154046997389034,
    "total15": 567,
    "total60": 2297,
    "momentum": 0.9399274434485703,
    "diversity": 0.7551020408163265,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 37
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 260,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935330555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997305439814815
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4608959223140268
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 18:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.291
Log loss0.775
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016212025093395362,
  "shareRatio": 1.2420922521212021,
  "totalAfter": 42561,
  "shareBefore": 0.0013032443926195212,
  "totalBefore": 43737,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 69,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 57
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "odyssean" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.13% → 0.16% (+24%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "odyssean" (24H). momentum contributed -0.06 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash35c5d8387a2213492eb4cd8cd1c5a974d3f25b6df916aedd3756f8ea0bcac776
Previous hash957c848415cbd098ce06103aa9987962492dc309f84c184c1432f1aab4997179