Will "gta" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 66% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 2297 launches in the last hour referenced "gta" (7 distinct creators, rank #126). Last 15m momentum 2.34×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": 0.8511293333194796,
      "diversity": 0.03333333333333335
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.662091958919608
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "gta",
    "rank60": 126,
    "share15": 0.009683098591549295,
    "share60": 0.004134029590948651,
    "total15": 567,
    "total60": 2297,
    "momentum": 2.3422905856189766,
    "diversity": 0.7777777777777778,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 260,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935330555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935330555555556
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.662091958919608
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00045413260672116256,
  "shareRatio": 0.16613708579210168,
  "totalAfter": 2202,
  "shareBefore": 0.003884333189469141,
  "totalBefore": 2317,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity