Ledger / Prediction #3282 · narrative · 24H
Will "cdm" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
60 of 2289 launches in the last hour referenced "cdm" (34 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 3.86×.
Made2026-10-13 18:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 18:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 17:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3727359974682,
"momentum": 1.3514685942204931,
"diversity": -0.22
},
"rawProbability": 0.6111389572047181
},
"features": {
"term": "cdm",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.10205992509363296,
"share60": 0.026419213973799125,
"total15": 533,
"total60": 2289,
"momentum": 3.8630946853623054,
"diversity": 0.5666666666666667,
"launches15": 54,
"launches60": 60,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 34
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 270,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963302777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998470949074074
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6111389572047181
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 18:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.373
Log loss0.944
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.000023466466419486555,
"shareRatio": 0.025588708434057382,
"totalAfter": 42614,
"shareBefore": 0.0013642254609945203,
"totalBefore": 43981,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 1,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 60
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 61% that "cdm" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.14% → 0.00% (-98%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "cdm" (24H). momentum contributed +1.35 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
fbdd2120a6c5b97baa1e1b582267b690da46664e86792cf139b23ce2648e4761Previous hash
07aea4376bcdd554c310f939b831d510acdcda1ad903961f75c7e747fb830cc6