GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3280 · narrative · 6H

Will "planet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 2289 launches in the last hour referenced "planet" (7 distinct creators, rank #135). Last 15m momentum 2.48×.

Made2026-10-13 18:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 00:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 17:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": 0.9093675512200206,
      "diversity": 0.03333333333333335
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6038680184293813
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "planet",
    "rank60": 135,
    "share15": 0.010299625468164793,
    "share60": 0.004148471615720524,
    "total15": 533,
    "total60": 2289,
    "momentum": 2.4827518233786714,
    "diversity": 0.7777777777777778,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 270,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963302777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993883796296297
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6038680184293813
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 00:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.365
Log loss0.926
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0014813769751693003,
  "shareRatio": 0.6613660464610259,
  "totalAfter": 14176,
  "shareBefore": 0.002254353233830846,
  "totalBefore": 12864,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 21,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 29
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "planet" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.15% (-34%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "planet" (6H). momentum contributed +0.91 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash01f0dddbee0b4887460201e92dd703a2ae2e0fe24849f5439ba90229844db3af
Previous hashe2086364babec2425fd02f6c940de76378e2866139a7a7668238a9ef89025e31