Ledger / Prediction #3280 · narrative · 6H
Will "planet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
9 of 2289 launches in the last hour referenced "planet" (7 distinct creators, rank #135). Last 15m momentum 2.48×.
Made2026-10-13 18:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 00:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 17:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.08816799973531786,
"momentum": 0.9093675512200206,
"diversity": 0.03333333333333335
},
"rawProbability": 0.6038680184293813
},
"features": {
"term": "planet",
"rank60": 135,
"share15": 0.010299625468164793,
"share60": 0.004148471615720524,
"total15": 533,
"total60": 2289,
"momentum": 2.4827518233786714,
"diversity": 0.7777777777777778,
"launches15": 5,
"launches60": 9,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 270,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963302777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993883796296297
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6038680184293813
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 00:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.365
Log loss0.926
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0014813769751693003,
"shareRatio": 0.6613660464610259,
"totalAfter": 14176,
"shareBefore": 0.002254353233830846,
"totalBefore": 12864,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 21,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 29
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 60% that "planet" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.15% (-34%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "planet" (6H). momentum contributed +0.91 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
01f0dddbee0b4887460201e92dd703a2ae2e0fe24849f5439ba90229844db3afPrevious hash
e2086364babec2425fd02f6c940de76378e2866139a7a7668238a9ef89025e31