Ledger / Prediction #3275 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
62 of 2289 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (35 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 2.09×.
Made2026-10-13 18:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 19:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 17:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.37765447089164866,
"momentum": 0.7384713844591005,
"diversity": -0.22258064516129025
},
"rawProbability": 0.644178167456064
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.05711610486891386,
"share60": 0.027292576419213975,
"total15": 533,
"total60": 2289,
"momentum": 2.0927340823970035,
"diversity": 0.5645161290322581,
"launches15": 30,
"launches60": 62,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 35
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 270,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963302777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963302777777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.644178167456064
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 19:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.415
Log loss1.033
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.020389669234254643,
"shareRatio": 0.7560253623188407,
"totalAfter": 2207,
"shareBefore": 0.027050610820244327,
"totalBefore": 2292,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 45,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 62
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 64% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.71% → 2.04% (-25%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.74 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
dd0381c4e01e299f3d06694d646f29c0e61abfa7fe500def42f62fdb7b9d38eaPrevious hash
8f617a5840d8cdf417c9f3d27b4771dcc35a715a03c656bc2d776d6c4c6d7fe7