Ledger / Prediction #327 · narrative · 1H

Will "burn" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 2680 launches in the last hour referenced "burn" (7 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.10×.

Made2026-10-09 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 21:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 20:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": -2.2906529413689105,
      "diversity": -0.7472727272727273
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "burn",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.002094972067039106,
    "share60": 0.020701230883998507,
    "total15": 715,
    "total60": 2680,
    "momentum": 0.10120036237354674,
    "diversity": 0.12727272727272726,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 439,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.997965,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.997965
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 21:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00334696913350688,
  "shareRatio": 0.170853009142972,
  "totalAfter": 2689,
  "shareBefore": 0.020491803278688523,
  "totalBefore": 2684,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 55
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "burn" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.05% → 0.33% (-84%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "burn" (1H). momentum contributed -2.29 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7cafcc22c213cae01b59509c1f9e43597b50014cd97dc4eec09bef4c4effe0d4

Previous hashb95f569f062ccc76ee2c259bab927ecbf87a0d2771227dd1b8a30c4ed813031a