Ledger / Prediction #3269 · token · 1H

Will $PVE still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 21m ago. X link. No hot term. Creator launched 26 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 17:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 18:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 17:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.03407773968429842
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "HGPSNGAJozjZWBPwTdppJB1DrkrRHZaS8Q9b2s4gpump",
    "name": "Win and Help Win ",
    "symbol": "PVE",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 21,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 1748.123213733023,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 26
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 716,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.03407773968429842
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 18:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.035

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T17:10:45.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 1844.7192124768999,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3011.5828615537093,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 1748.123213733023,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $PVE would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $1,845, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $PVE (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe4a16ec25ea3941e8580c3255b43f91d513d07986c65c87fa81329b2ba31291d

Previous hash6aea6d1de4ed3bcea4e9f0e18a16fe8d5f4925e8aa411ab7c4eb4101cd38243f