Will "chonk" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 2327 launches in the last hour referenced "chonk" (24 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.56×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": -0.5770687011624303,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3722500213860022
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chonk",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.009769094138543518,
    "share60": 0.017396907216494846,
    "total15": 562,
    "total60": 2327,
    "momentum": 0.5615420038155384,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 305,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996408333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999850347222222
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3722500213860022
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005600541385667281,
  "shareRatio": 0.4224205853527298,
  "totalAfter": 42853,
  "shareBefore": 0.0013420681497657066,
  "totalBefore": 43962,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 24,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 59
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity