Ledger / Prediction #3262 · narrative · 6H

Will "magic" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 2327 launches in the last hour referenced "magic" (32 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.62×.

Made2026-10-13 17:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 23:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 17:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": -0.48147358048140887,
      "diversity": -0.006976744186046524
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.39747905294969527
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "magic",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.011545293072824156,
    "share60": 0.018685567010309278,
    "total15": 562,
    "total60": 2327,
    "momentum": 0.6178722361732101,
    "diversity": 0.7441860465116279,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 305,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996408333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999401388888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.39747905294969527
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 23:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.158

Log loss0.507

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0022988505747126436,
  "shareRatio": 0.4952644952644953,
  "totalAfter": 14355,
  "shareBefore": 0.004671768022553363,
  "totalBefore": 12415,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 33,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 58
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "magic" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.47% → 0.23% (-51%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "magic" (6H). momentum contributed -0.48 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3432072bc02d85ccea2abb4add8aa842334d2f96dfb466628e23f6eea49c6d80

Previous hash9fe063ce3528f01d9178e75757d63d6706e7c839a11dab6ca6e221d906bd183c