Ledger / Prediction #326 · narrative · 1H

Will "slop" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

64 of 2680 launches in the last hour referenced "slop" (39 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.90×.

Made2026-10-09 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 21:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 20:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3824167756388357,
      "momentum": -0.1055602286012121,
      "diversity": -0.16874999999999998
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.45217330734836275
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "slop",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.02164804469273743,
    "share60": 0.024058187243565832,
    "total15": 715,
    "total60": 2680,
    "momentum": 0.8998202762981249,
    "diversity": 0.609375,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 64,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 39
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 439,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.997965,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.997965
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.45217330734836275
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 21:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.204

Log loss0.602

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.019338043882484196,
  "shareRatio": 0.8124405636725167,
  "totalAfter": 2689,
  "shareBefore": 0.02384500745156483,
  "totalBefore": 2684,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 52,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 64
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 45% that "slop" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.38% → 1.93% (-19%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "slop" (1H). diversity contributed -0.17 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb95f569f062ccc76ee2c259bab927ecbf87a0d2771227dd1b8a30c4ed813031a

Previous hash7235efde901557702a294593fcd647f08e033abe8a973d221abdc9e220c3fe75