Will "magic" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 39% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 2327 launches in the last hour referenced "magic" (32 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.62×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": -0.48147358048140887,
      "diversity": -0.006976744186046524
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.38563781785137496
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "magic",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.011545293072824156,
    "share60": 0.018685567010309278,
    "total15": 562,
    "total60": 2327,
    "momentum": 0.6178722361732101,
    "diversity": 0.7441860465116279,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 305,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996408333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996408333333333
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.38563781785137496
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002589555459646094,
  "shareRatio": 0.15019884363254093,
  "totalAfter": 2317,
  "shareBefore": 0.0184628595963933,
  "totalBefore": 2329,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 43
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity