Will "moodeng" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 75% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 2327 launches in the last hour referenced "moodeng" (23 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 4.13×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": 1.419485180711638,
      "diversity": -0.336734693877551
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7549349395648074
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "moodeng",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.08792184724689166,
    "share60": 0.021262886597938145,
    "total15": 562,
    "total60": 2327,
    "momentum": 4.134991119005329,
    "diversity": 0.46938775510204084,
    "launches15": 49,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 305,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996408333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996408333333333
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7549349395648074
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01078981441519206,
  "shareRatio": 0.5178183909849139,
  "totalAfter": 2317,
  "shareBefore": 0.0210390725633319,
  "totalBefore": 2329,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 25,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 49
}

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity