Ledger / Prediction #3257 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

227 of 2327 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (127 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.55×.

Made2026-10-13 17:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 18:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 17:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5723268157570953,
      "momentum": -0.5899383740660011,
      "diversity": -0.22863436123348013
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3667358221303759
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.0541740674955595,
    "share60": 0.0977233676975945,
    "total15": 562,
    "total60": 2327,
    "momentum": 0.5543614467237913,
    "diversity": 0.5594713656387665,
    "launches15": 30,
    "launches60": 227,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 127
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 305,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996408333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996408333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3667358221303759
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 18:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.134

Log loss0.457

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04963314630988347,
  "shareRatio": 0.5103205681290237,
  "totalAfter": 2317,
  "shareBefore": 0.09746672391584371,
  "totalBefore": 2329,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 115,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 227
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 37% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.75% → 4.96% (-49%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). momentum contributed -0.59 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4f4190d146d77242b43dbb5ed71c5b286b7f5f1109cb1c4947da5194d25fa65b

Previous hash72009ba92d53c7bf082f2bd254bf97d53429847926f520d0d60dd157d5db31c8