Ledger / Prediction #3252 · narrative · 24H

Will "card" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2429 launches in the last hour referenced "card" (7 distinct creators, rank #235). Last 15m momentum 1.23×.

Made2026-10-13 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 16:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 0.20935022918187396,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49497780199094393
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "card",
    "rank60": 235,
    "share15": 0.00380517503805175,
    "share60": 0.0030864197530864196,
    "total15": 656,
    "total60": 2429,
    "momentum": 1.2328767123287672,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 369,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918522222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996605092592593
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49497780199094393
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 17:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.245

Log loss0.683

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001075092902049688,
  "shareRatio": 0.7220781105798055,
  "totalAfter": 42787,
  "shareBefore": 0.0014937533948940792,
  "totalBefore": 44184,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 46,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 66
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "card" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.15% → 0.11% (-28%). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on "card" (24H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash36dfed86ff0822c2b3fcbe2d19d0849912369a9c85a8787a088c86ba412f97ae

Previous hasha6cbebbf641e5fc46242206dfac221f211ddb8d6d79626b4dcd358dec056c381