Ledger / Prediction #325 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

100 of 2680 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (66 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.02×.

Made2026-10-09 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 21:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 20:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4493598410330986,
      "momentum": 0.024293248448708962,
      "diversity": -0.10799999999999996
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5164073793613465
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.03840782122905028,
    "share60": 0.037486012681835136,
    "total15": 715,
    "total60": 2680,
    "momentum": 1.024590733483421,
    "diversity": 0.66,
    "launches15": 27,
    "launches60": 100,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 66
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 439,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.997965,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.997965
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5164073793613465
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 21:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.234

Log loss0.661

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04648568240981778,
  "shareRatio": 1.2464351106918936,
  "totalAfter": 2689,
  "shareBefore": 0.037257824143070044,
  "totalBefore": 2684,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 125,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 100
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 52% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.73% → 4.65% (+25%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). volume contributed +0.45 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7235efde901557702a294593fcd647f08e033abe8a973d221abdc9e220c3fe75

Previous hasha146880a3f86aaf8487b7bef3f2c3efa8eb504aabed826150259ca8487e0ed07