Ledger / Prediction #3247 · narrative · 6H
Will "king" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
40 of 2429 launches in the last hour referenced "king" (26 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 2.88×.
Made2026-10-13 17:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 23:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 16:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3119162312519754,
"momentum": 1.0566480895690775,
"diversity": -0.11999999999999997
},
"rawProbability": 0.6396844942503761
},
"features": {
"term": "king",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.04794520547945205,
"share60": 0.016666666666666666,
"total15": 656,
"total60": 2429,
"momentum": 2.8767123287671232,
"diversity": 0.65,
"launches15": 31,
"launches60": 40,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 26
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 369,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9918522222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.998642037037037
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6396844942503761
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 23:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.409
Log loss1.021
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.004268502581755594,
"shareRatio": 0.8055742567495048,
"totalAfter": 14525,
"shareBefore": 0.005299461641991925,
"totalBefore": 11888,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 62,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 63
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 64% that "king" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.53% → 0.43% (-19%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "king" (6H). momentum contributed +1.06 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
c54ae56fe34e8627922e0b4da6e05c54577a0fd845df01b1941f95249a16bf09Previous hash
322719c284412197cec92e1015f636c0cfa1cce4264bb0ddc51e36ee90561b9e