Ledger / Prediction #3245 · narrative · 6H

Will "internet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 2429 launches in the last hour referenced "internet" (41 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.34×.

Made2026-10-13 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 16:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": -1.089932754948387,
      "diversity": 0.10408163265306127
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.32072420691933456
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "internet",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.00684931506849315,
    "share60": 0.020370370370370372,
    "total15": 656,
    "total60": 2429,
    "momentum": 0.336239103362391,
    "diversity": 0.8367346938775511,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 41
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 369,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918522222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.998642037037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.32072420691933456
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 23:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.103

Log loss0.387

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006333907056798623,
  "shareRatio": 0.745890331520379,
  "totalAfter": 14525,
  "shareBefore": 0.008495962314939435,
  "totalBefore": 11888,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 92,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 101
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 32% that "internet" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.85% → 0.63% (-25%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "internet" (6H). momentum contributed -1.09 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5d99ce0e046a12133f73ae16e528d99fb4c65bc39e2cca4fbdae62456136e573

Previous hashcd2098103d68b9a0153ae54705e4ca41f6aeb46ff67f8f39dd454220443c0ffc