Ledger / Prediction #3242 · narrative · 1H

Will "scat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 77% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 2429 launches in the last hour referenced "scat" (30 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.44×.

Made2026-10-13 17:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 18:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 16:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": 1.2347591138266887,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.770500017963668
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "scat",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.06012176560121765,
    "share60": 0.01748971193415638,
    "total15": 656,
    "total60": 2429,
    "momentum": 3.4375503626107977,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 39,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 369,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918522222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918522222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.770500017963668
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 18:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.594

Log loss1.472

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0004363001745200698,
  "shareRatio": 0.03763371899130345,
  "totalAfter": 2292,
  "shareBefore": 0.01718494271685761,
  "totalBefore": 2444,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 77% that "scat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.72% → 0.04% (-97%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "scat" (1H). momentum contributed +1.23 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 77% and wrong on "scat". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashde27bf851dffdc6015c2f230b838a5c104fd0ce5551ed878d1d59925bb6aff03

Previous hashd82dbde8504cd6ec6a940981139911bfbeecedbd7f3601bc914c60644bf1b262