Will "laser" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

26 of 2503 launches in the last hour referenced "laser" (17 distinct creators, rank #18). Last 15m momentum 1.46×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24729879383810724,
      "momentum": 0.376544834300788,
      "diversity": -0.11538461538461536
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.48855937380818054
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "laser",
    "rank60": 18,
    "share15": 0.015422077922077922,
    "share60": 0.010583067092651758,
    "total15": 615,
    "total60": 2503,
    "momentum": 1.457240872335212,
    "diversity": 0.6538461538461539,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 26,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 17
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 346,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926722222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999694675925926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.48855937380818054
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006770796852746842,
  "shareRatio": 0.9760392763754736,
  "totalAfter": 42831,
  "shareBefore": 0.0006944600013441162,
  "totalBefore": 44639,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 29,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 31
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity