Will "dip" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 2503 launches in the last hour referenced "dip" (30 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.16×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": -1.8427953644991049,
      "diversity": 0.047368421052631594
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.20687874065121625
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dip",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.002435064935064935,
    "share60": 0.015375399361022364,
    "total15": 615,
    "total60": 2503,
    "momentum": 0.1583740934390285,
    "diversity": 0.7894736842105263,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 346,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926722222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987787037037037
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.20687874065121625
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00047393364928909954,
  "shareRatio": 0.11609562553980672,
  "totalAfter": 14770,
  "shareBefore": 0.004329769373508881,
  "totalBefore": 11317,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 49
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity