Ledger / Prediction #3229 · narrative · 6H

Will "chipotle" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

51 of 2503 launches in the last hour referenced "chipotle" (45 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.75×.

Made2026-10-13 16:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 22:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 16:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34835815804353376,
      "momentum": -0.28789224037672595,
      "diversity": 0.15882352941176467
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.46344101403894383
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chipotle",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.015422077922077922,
    "share60": 0.02056709265175719,
    "total15": 615,
    "total60": 2503,
    "momentum": 0.7498423906190896,
    "diversity": 0.8823529411764706,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 51,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 45
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 346,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926722222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987787037037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.46344101403894383
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 22:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.215

Log loss0.623

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007447528774542992,
  "shareRatio": 0.17110015492177338,
  "totalAfter": 14770,
  "shareBefore": 0.004506494654060263,
  "totalBefore": 11317,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "chipotle" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.07% (-83%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "chipotle" (6H). momentum contributed -0.29 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash425d9e6fbf03b9938c0dcd1d17151584d9c598dbe758949b07ed2a452b8c0657

Previous hashd958e973f6ee36e5598e43576a427284c2cb6b793a4252c77dcc9a4df8296ae2