Ledger / Prediction #3228 · narrative · 1H
Will "momboss" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
16 of 2503 launches in the last hour referenced "momboss" (6 distinct creators, rank #77). Last 15m momentum 0.12×.
Made2026-10-13 16:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 17:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 16:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.17447262147085213,
"momentum": -2.094109792780011,
"diversity": -0.44999999999999996
},
"rawProbability": 0.06478894941271347
},
"features": {
"term": "momboss",
"rank60": 77,
"share15": 0.0008116883116883117,
"share60": 0.006589456869009584,
"total15": 615,
"total60": 2503,
"momentum": 0.12317985045257773,
"diversity": 0.375,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 16,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 346,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9926722222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9926722222222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.06478894941271347
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 17:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.004
Log loss0.067
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0,
"shareRatio": 0.032774092859929764,
"totalAfter": 2329,
"shareBefore": 0.006351726875744343,
"totalBefore": 2519,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 0,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 16
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 6% that "momboss" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.64% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "momboss" (1H). momentum contributed -2.09 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
d958e973f6ee36e5598e43576a427284c2cb6b793a4252c77dcc9a4df8296ae2Previous hash
6b4b0e8023087ff2700ac4bf3729a5cc191a586efaa58e2327e5b60780784952