Ledger / Prediction #3227 · narrative · 1H

Will "runner" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 2503 launches in the last hour referenced "runner" (27 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.03×.

Made2026-10-13 16:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 17:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 16:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": 0.026153743420080287,
      "diversity": -0.2387755102040817
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4575364330262282
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "runner",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.020292207792207792,
    "share60": 0.019768370607028754,
    "total15": 615,
    "total60": 2503,
    "momentum": 1.0264987537714811,
    "diversity": 0.5510204081632653,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 346,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926722222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9926722222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4575364330262282
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 17:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.209

Log loss0.612

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0038643194504079004,
  "shareRatio": 0.20756925477955523,
  "totalAfter": 2329,
  "shareBefore": 0.01945216355696705,
  "totalBefore": 2519,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 49
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "runner" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.95% → 0.39% (-80%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "runner" (1H). diversity contributed -0.24 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6b4b0e8023087ff2700ac4bf3729a5cc191a586efaa58e2327e5b60780784952

Previous hashc252a8d69ab18cfda09fa1e00727747d3a485db55c824d9b5588563284f79d15