Ledger / Prediction #3220 · narrative · 24H
Will "keep" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
6 of 2443 launches in the last hour referenced "keep" (5 distinct creators, rank #240). Last 15m momentum 1.87×.
Made2026-10-13 16:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 16:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 15:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.027348233519093188,
"momentum": 0.6284187078594514,
"diversity": 0.10000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.5194610313829112
},
"features": {
"term": "keep",
"rank60": 240,
"share15": 0.004985754985754986,
"share60": 0.0026595744680851063,
"total15": 701,
"total60": 2443,
"momentum": 1.8746438746438747,
"diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 6,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 297,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9946422222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997767592592592
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5194610313829112
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 16:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.270
Log loss0.733
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.004059634632883041,
"shareRatio": 0.956102787790787,
"totalAfter": 42861,
"shareBefore": 0.004247043833962939,
"totalBefore": 44737,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 174,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 190
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 52% that "keep" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.42% → 0.41% (-4%). PARTIAL.
— "keep" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
ee1c17d4016411af041af24b52f51393f8d3384a230b80b12719db5aac93b71bPrevious hash
6322f7095ac2b323a9d0d5403a4f3f41a03fc165c8dfeb8d3eb64cee7d1f4b65