Ledger / Prediction #3213 · narrative · 6H

Will "fantasy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

51 of 2443 launches in the last hour referenced "fantasy" (35 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

Made2026-10-13 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 22:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 15:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34835815804353376,
      "momentum": -3.3872710719639607,
      "diversity": -0.07647058823529411
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07721742841078737
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fantasy",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.0007122507122507123,
    "share60": 0.02107201309328969,
    "total15": 701,
    "total60": 2443,
    "momentum": 0.03380079108234448,
    "diversity": 0.6862745098039216,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 51,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 35
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 297,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946422222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991070370370371
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.07721742841078737
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 22:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.006

Log loss0.080

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00026670222696359517,
  "shareRatio": 0.0597796862469959,
  "totalAfter": 14998,
  "shareBefore": 0.0049723238577727745,
  "totalBefore": 10659,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 53
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 8% that "fantasy" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.50% → 0.03% (-95%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "fantasy" (6H). momentum contributed -3.39 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc983c96143e1bf040fbf8d7bd36fd5507e56c3628f714aedf65cc1dc4f11e17e

Previous hash1ba583644c3e6ce1c894c2350583e1c8403b461d91d405c7140d9086aefa8647