Ledger / Prediction #3210 · narrative · 1H

Will "index" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

82 of 2443 launches in the last hour referenced "index" (52 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.06×.

Made2026-10-13 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 15:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4195922002245229,
      "momentum": -2.759875268966796,
      "diversity": -0.13902439024390242
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05845265853869086
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "index",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.002136752136752137,
    "share60": 0.03375613747954174,
    "total15": 701,
    "total60": 2443,
    "momentum": 0.0632996632996633,
    "diversity": 0.6341463414634146,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 82,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 52
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 297,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946422222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9946422222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05845265853869086
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 17:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.060

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012274959083469722,
  "shareRatio": 0.04264981099336927,
  "totalAfter": 2444,
  "shareBefore": 0.03337403337403337,
  "totalBefore": 2457,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 82
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that "index" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.34% → 0.12% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "index" (1H). momentum contributed -2.76 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc9e2fb5c75396622c6439c5b9d13cb08d9bb86eed6a383c0793f8309b4754a8c

Previous hash97da0cd3407d95a922956ea457a9d11668b22dfacabcc21d45f28f39532b8e48