Ledger / Prediction #3209 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

129 of 2443 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (84 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.95×.

Made2026-10-13 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 15:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.48755617378913574,
      "momentum": -0.04669026839254738,
      "diversity": -0.11860465116279063
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5055650837393441
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.05056980056980057,
    "share60": 0.05298690671031096,
    "total15": 701,
    "total60": 2443,
    "momentum": 0.9543829543829545,
    "diversity": 0.6511627906976745,
    "launches15": 35,
    "launches60": 129,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 84
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 297,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946422222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9946422222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5055650837393441
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 17:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.244

Log loss0.682

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.09247135842880523,
  "shareRatio": 1.7583343202975106,
  "totalAfter": 2444,
  "shareBefore": 0.052503052503052504,
  "totalBefore": 2457,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 226,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 129
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.25% → 9.25% (+76%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). volume contributed +0.49 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash97da0cd3407d95a922956ea457a9d11668b22dfacabcc21d45f28f39532b8e48

Previous hashc52a492b366f655471db04612195e02392cf74d28831cf098a5e4cd85c58b044