Ledger / Prediction #3191 · token · 1H

Will $ch still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 2% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 26m ago. No social links. No hot term. Creator launched 8 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 15:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 15:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.02310254327777607
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "Eb9oSL8Vp84KhTAgYe76PqaKMjA4abP4a2GJaMMHpump",
    "name": "chair",
    "symbol": "ch",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 26,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2991.705912477632,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 8
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 744,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.02310254327777607
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 16:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.023

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T15:03:41.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 971.3925270583159,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 5121.4717453545345,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2991.705912477632,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5983.411824955264
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 2% that $ch would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $971, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $ch (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6962f6cf10fe46203c84b36217c89f20533b9415ac7553c3a124b3389ee5bbcb

Previous hash180aa0c2d960088045c1cf48b8b510699f2cd28fb0b1dea6b22e1f9331fe3e97