Will "ronaldo" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 1999 launches in the last hour referenced "ronaldo" (5 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.43×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": 0.3586248958078115,
      "diversity": -0.7604651162790698
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.415921720114828
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ronaldo",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.031132075471698113,
    "share60": 0.02175,
    "total15": 529,
    "total60": 1999,
    "momentum": 1.4313597918022123,
    "diversity": 0.11627906976744186,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 256,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996163888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999840162037037
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.415921720114828
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0013952190493907544,
  "shareRatio": 1.359919389218308,
  "totalAfter": 43004,
  "shareBefore": 0.001023382055218136,
  "totalBefore": 44949,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 60,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 46
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity