Ledger / Prediction #3183 · narrative · 6H

Will "ronaldo" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 1999 launches in the last hour referenced "ronaldo" (5 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.43×.

Made2026-10-13 15:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 21:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 15:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": 0.3586248958078115,
      "diversity": -0.7604651162790698
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4120849074254508
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ronaldo",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.031132075471698113,
    "share60": 0.02175,
    "total15": 529,
    "total60": 1999,
    "momentum": 1.4313597918022123,
    "diversity": 0.11627906976744186,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 256,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996163888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999360648148148
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4120849074254508
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 21:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.170

Log loss0.531

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0027038269550748754,
  "shareRatio": 0.5698128639027905,
  "totalAfter": 14424,
  "shareBefore": 0.004752133059725673,
  "totalBefore": 9259,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 39,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 44
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 41% that "ronaldo" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.48% → 0.27% (-43%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "ronaldo" (6H). diversity contributed -0.76 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash67bf8759988cff8c10357b7ee46765e36396c6c968390ec8dc1e0cf0cfea463e

Previous hashd7ce43488041dfddc9cc9c49577df55618c39a3a4bdeaf3d5a3dd9eca1783ea3