Ledger / Prediction #3181 · narrative · 6H

Will "sci" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

77 of 1999 launches in the last hour referenced "sci" (38 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.46×.

Made2026-10-13 15:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 21:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 15:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.41015512641293755,
      "momentum": -0.7709606847568914,
      "diversity": -0.3077922077922078
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3169079140851315
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sci",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.017924528301886792,
    "share60": 0.03875,
    "total15": 529,
    "total60": 1999,
    "momentum": 0.4625684723067559,
    "diversity": 0.4935064935064935,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 77,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 38
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 256,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996163888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999360648148148
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3169079140851315
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 21:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.100

Log loss0.381

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003466444814198558,
  "shareRatio": 0.04555710851456365,
  "totalAfter": 14424,
  "shareBefore": 0.008316232854519927,
  "totalBefore": 9259,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 77
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 32% that "sci" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.83% → 0.03% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "sci" (6H). momentum contributed -0.77 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd1da0c3653535e4eaaba299977d59e00eedabde688347aac141b58d882560df0

Previous hashe2999fd5eab9bdd2ec409bde674d495be1eb40606b8b82df654440f334f71cd7