Will "launchblitz" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

11 of 1999 launches in the last hour referenced "launchblitz" (4 distinct creators, rank #91). Last 15m momentum 0.49×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.11826860405464054,
      "momentum": -0.7088564742651252,
      "diversity": -0.4636363636363636
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2051806192880237
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "launchblitz",
    "rank60": 91,
    "share15": 0.002830188679245283,
    "share60": 0.00575,
    "total15": 529,
    "total60": 1999,
    "momentum": 0.49220672682526656,
    "diversity": 0.36363636363636365,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 11,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 256,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996163888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996163888888889
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2051806192880237
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001628001628001628,
  "shareRatio": 0.3183924717868893,
  "totalAfter": 2457,
  "shareBefore": 0.005502751375687844,
  "totalBefore": 1999,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 11
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity