Ledger / Prediction #318 · narrative · 6H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

70 of 2605 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (51 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.71×.

Made2026-10-09 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3958585994422888,
      "momentum": -0.33665860232607775,
      "diversity": -0.025714285714285755
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4312973383771142
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.019319938176197836,
    "share60": 0.027052954719877207,
    "total15": 646,
    "total60": 2605,
    "momentum": 0.7141526083286746,
    "diversity": 0.7285714285714285,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 70,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 51
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 377,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921322222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986887037037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4312973383771142
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.186

Log loss0.564

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.012523822488429077,
  "shareRatio": 0.6983282047811313,
  "totalAfter": 14692,
  "shareBefore": 0.017949233139106558,
  "totalBefore": 14931,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 184,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 268
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "dog" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.79% → 1.25% (-30%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "dog" (6H). momentum contributed -0.34 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe2956def039d4a1a062b3491d0172f0d9d37a3525287c59b9e6dcd9afcd9c54b

Previous hash56224b916e38c7b7ade67b63b41050b24776d82cf7504fabfbb087ca862fd036