Ledger / Prediction #3179 · narrative · 1H

Will "sci" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 28% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

77 of 1999 launches in the last hour referenced "sci" (38 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.46×.

Made2026-10-13 15:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 15:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.41015512641293755,
      "momentum": -0.7709606847568914,
      "diversity": -0.3077922077922078
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.275160085373282
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sci",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.017924528301886792,
    "share60": 0.03875,
    "total15": 529,
    "total60": 1999,
    "momentum": 0.4625684723067559,
    "diversity": 0.4935064935064935,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 77,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 38
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 256,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996163888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996163888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.275160085373282
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 16:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.076

Log loss0.322

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001628001628001628,
  "shareRatio": 0.04724533452321583,
  "totalAfter": 2457,
  "shareBefore": 0.03851925962981491,
  "totalBefore": 1999,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 77
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 28% that "sci" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.85% → 0.16% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "sci" (1H). momentum contributed -0.77 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6395e525a7960421022a89e11bb3f625e64f8eb6e9cc945333df4a9b59a7b35a

Previous hash3078990bf10f004429b68c34021d1a2ca3f784814e99fb30ffa58f06e7e6fe51