Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

96 of 1999 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (45 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.11×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.44323654185506034,
      "momentum": 0.1083865319255795,
      "diversity": -0.33749999999999997
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4785439530789691
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.05377358490566038,
    "share60": 0.04825,
    "total15": 529,
    "total60": 1999,
    "momentum": 1.1144784436406296,
    "diversity": 0.46875,
    "launches15": 28,
    "launches60": 96,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 45
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 256,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996163888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996163888888889
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4785439530789691
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.052503052503052504,
  "shareRatio": 1.0919193750342542,
  "totalAfter": 2457,
  "shareBefore": 0.048024012006003,
  "totalBefore": 1999,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 129,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 96
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity