Ledger / Prediction #3176 · token · 6H

Will $PUMP still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 20m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "posted".

Made2026-10-13 14:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 20:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 14:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.12516099799833535
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "CsZY16nUAjkBxJ1quzQ6sqyn2qwhUrKWx2kFiQtWpump",
    "name": "CA FINALLY POSTED",
    "symbol": "PUMP",
    "hotTerms": [
      "posted",
      "paired"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 20,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 25,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3000.3354954261995,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 585,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.12516099799833535
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 20:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.016

Log loss0.134

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T14:20:23.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3014.2694612400937,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3014.3128269792655,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3000.3354954261995,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6000.670990852399
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 13% that $PUMP would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,014, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $PUMP (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdef9fec3bfb811bd89423377e12bc486460e8f76adc851c9de7ed6953b4cf31e

Previous hasha2f7d0e9d959897e2e8887695f92cbe8ac3ccf4bcbf8f66fab7bb51df837d8c4